Stop Answering Every Tender

A bid that costs weeks and wins nothing is a business decision, and it can be made before the first page is written.

A bid that costs weeks and wins nothing is a business decision, and you can make it before work starts. This guide shows how to count what a tender costs in hours, estimate your odds from signals you can check, and set a written no-bid rule. It ends with a one-page bid sheet for architects, agencies and stand builders.

A bid no-bid decision is a business decision, and you can make it before the first page is written. Count what the bid will cost in hours. Estimate your odds from signals you can check. Then follow a rule you wrote down in a calm week.

This guide gives architects, agencies and stand builders the math, the signals and a one-page bid sheet.

The habit of saying yes

Take a made-up design studio that answers every tender it sees. Over one year it sends ten bids, and each one takes weeks of senior time. It wins one, and the profit on that job does not cover the hours spent on the other nine.

By December, the useful question is not which tender to answer next. It is whether bidding is the best use of the team's time at all.

It is tempting to answer every tender, because each one might be the one. That feels safe. It is the opposite. Every bid you lose costs money you never see on an invoice.

Count what a bid costs

Start with hours. Add up every person's time, from reading the documents to sending the final file. Multiply by what that time costs you, not what you charge for it. Then add the money you spend, such as renders, models, printing and travel.

• Senior staff, 40 hours at $90: $3,600
• Designers, 80 hours at $50: $4,000
• Renders and printing: $1,500
• Travel to the site visit: $500
• Total: $9,600

Five lost bids at that size come to $48,000. That money left the firm with nothing to show for it.

Estimate the odds from signals

You cannot know your odds. You can estimate them from signals you can check before you start.

• You know the client. Raises the odds: You have met the person who decides. Lowers the odds: You have never spoken to anyone there.
• Number of bidders. Raises the odds: Three or four on a shortlist. Lowers the odds: An open call to everyone.
• Unpaid design. Raises the odds: Thinking and a fee only. Lowers the odds: Full concepts and renders, unpaid.
• Current supplier. Raises the odds: No one holds the work now. Lowers the odds: The current supplier is bidding.
• The brief. Raises the odds: Written around the problem. Lowers the odds: Written around one firm's past work.
• Budget. Raises the odds: Stated, and fits the scope. Lowers the odds: Missing, or too low for the scope.
• Your proof. Raises the odds: You have done this kind of work. Lowers the odds: You would be learning on the job.

A rough start is one in the number of bidders. Move it up or down for each signal. An open call with twelve firms starts near one in twelve. A shortlist of three where you know the client might be one in two.

The bid no-bid decision, cost against odds

Now multiply. The expected return is the profit if you win, times your odds. Compare it with the cost of the bid.

Say the job would make $40,000 in profit. At one in twelve, the bid is worth about $3,300. It costs $9,600, so skip it. At one in two, the same bid is worth $20,000, so bid and bid well.

This math leaves out real benefits, such as a new sector or a client you want for years. Count those on purpose, as an exception, not as a habit.

Write a no-bid rule

Decide the rule once, on paper, when no tender is on your desk. Then a shiny brief cannot make the decision for you. Here is an example to adapt.

• We do not bid when unpaid concept design is required, unless the client is on our target list.
• We do not bid in open calls with more than six firms, unless we know the person who decides.
• We do not bid when the expected return is below the cost of the bid.
• We do not bid without a budget, unless one is given when we ask.
• We cap the number of bids each quarter, so our best people stay on paid work.

Your limits will differ. What matters is that they are written before the next brief arrives. When a tender asks for free concepts, win a pitch without giving away the design shows what to offer instead.

The one-page bid sheet

• Client and project
• Deadline, and hours left to submit
• Cost of the bid, hours times cost rate plus spend
• Profit if we win
• Number of bidders
• Signals that raise our odds
• Signals that lower our odds
• Estimated odds, one in how many
• Expected return, profit times odds
• Strategic reason to bid anyway
• Decision, bid or no bid, and who made it
• Date to review after the result

Say no well, and learn from every result

Decline early and politely, and ask to stay on the list. A short no now can keep you in mind for a brief that fits.

Ask for a debrief on every bid you lose. Log the real number of bidders and the reason given. After a year, your odds stop being guesses.

Bid less, win more

Every hour not spent on a long shot can go to a bid you might win. Fewer, better bids are the cheapest way to raise your win rate.

Frequently asked questions

What is a bid no-bid decision?

It is the choice to answer a tender or RFP, or to pass, made before work starts. Firms weigh the cost of the bid in hours and spend against their odds of winning and the profit at stake. A written rule keeps the decision the same from bid to bid.

How do I estimate my chance of winning a tender?

Start with one in the number of bidders. Raise it if you know the person who decides, the shortlist is small and the budget fits. Lower it if the current supplier is bidding or unpaid design is required. Track results to sharpen the estimate.

How much does it cost to answer a tender?

Add every person's hours times what that time costs your firm, then add renders, printing, models and travel. Even a modest bid can run to thousands. That figure is the money you lose each time you do not win.

Should I ask why I lost a tender?

Yes. Ask for a debrief each time, and record the number of bidders and the reason given. Over a year, those notes turn your odds from a guess into a measured rate, and they show which signals matter for your firm.

If you do bid, keep the hours down. Monet turns a venue plan and a brief into a to-scale layout and 3D renders in minutes, which cuts the hours on your bid sheet.